There have been a plethora of blogs/news stories/articles/etc that have stated that Bitcoin needs to do ____ before it will be a success where ____ is anything from increase the block size, get regulated, better fungability, better exchanges, a marketing campaign, a new dev team, decentralization, more secure wallets, better scalability, BIP109, BIP101, BIP100, BIP9, Segwit, etc, etc. The list could go on and on but the reality is that Bitcoin can be easily obtained throughout the world and once you obtain it there are cheap methods to store it very securely. The truth of the matter is that only one thing needs to change before Bitcoin can be a success. Before I tell you what it is, I'd like to define what "success" is. For my purposes, success will mean replacing all forms of value transfer currently used in the world (meaning it replaces all fiat currencies and even gold, where it's used as a monetary instrument). The one thing that needs to change is our minds. What I mean is that as soon as everyone in the world understands the value of Bitcoin, it will replace all current forms of value transfer.
Some might say that this statement is ridiculous because Bitcoin only supports 7 tps or something like that. The reality is that if that's important to increase, it will be increased because there's enough value at stake to increase it or scale in some other way. The only thing that needs to happen for it to completely replace all money in the world is for everyone to figure it out. The basics of the system are already in place for this to happen because we have reliable exchanges around the world now. A rich person could wire $1 billion to Coinbase or Gemini or one of the other exchanges and start buying. But that's just speculation, right? Maybe, but why do people hold gold or cash? It's because it's a store of value. Bitcoin is an improved form of money based on the properties of money which are divisibility, portability, fungability, recognizability, scarcity, and durability. So, it is inevitable that this will be widely recognized.
One things to keep in mind is that this recognition is likely to happen VERY quickly. Many people talk about how Bitcoin might go up to $650 or $1,000 or $10,000 or even $100,000. The thing is when it's widely recognized that it is superior to form of money dollars will become obsolete. There won't be a memo. It will just start to happen and as the masses start to understand this, the value of all other paper assets will go to their intrinsic value which is practically nothing. Panic will set in and fear of missing out and KABOOM! So, the price of Bitcoin will go up to infinity because the value of the dollar, euro, yen, yuan, pound, ruble, etc will be zero. No one is going to notify you or give you a warning. It will just happen. If you understand this, you will be prepared.
There is an argument that has been put forth in the community that if transaction fees to up to $1 or $10 or something like that, Bitcoin will be useless. This is false. It doesn't matter what the fees are, if it's the only way to transfer value people will have to pay whatever fees are necessary and of course large holders would open up micropayment channels with each other and provide services for smaller users if this happened today. It would matter that this is not decentralized because all value in the world will be represented by Bitcoin.
All of this is inevitable. The only question is: when? For some reason, I have this sneaking suspicion that many people that have a lot of money understand this and are secretly accumulating as much bitcoin as they can while publicly smearing it. I suspect the price will start going up after the halvening. The real question is: how much will it go up at that time? Maybe it just goes up to a few thousand or so at that point, but if that's all that won't be the type of event that I'm talking about. When this event happens, all monetary value in the world will be transferred to Bitcoin. Maybe that's a few years later, but there is not doubt that the event is coming soon. Are you ready for this event? I am.
What are the consequences of this event? Of course, this event will be accompanied by mass hysteria because almost no one will know that Bitcoin is the new backbone to the monetary system when it happens. It will be proclaimed that no one could have possibly predicted this. But that won't be true. Some people will lose their life savings, but also everyone's debt will be wiped out so the majority of people will come out ahead. Society will benefit because we will be using sound money. The people who will be hurt are the people that have little debt and a lot of savings. Oh, by the way this event will cause all banks to become insolvent (as if they aren't already). Also, all bonds will be worthless because they are denominated in fiat currencies. Stocks that people own through a brokerage will largely be worthless as well because the brokerage holds many assets in bank accounts and also they do not hold all the stock certificates that they should. From what I understand the average brokerage holds about 20% of the stock certificates that they should and that means that when their bank accounts go belly up you won't be able to get your stock certificates (or maybe only 20% of them). Basically, you can assume that stocks will be worthless because others will be in line before you to collect any stock certificates that are left if this event happens. Of course, mutual funds, money markets, cds, savings accounts, checking accounts will all be instantly worthless. To summarize paper assets will evaporate instantly. Real estate will still have value but with this sort of collapse to the entire system home loans will not be available at all. When this happens, even if you have a fraction of a bitcoin, you will likely be able to buy up prime real estate. The holders of Bitcoin will inherit the earth so to speak.
This event will be epic and I don't see any way around it happening. It's not if, it's when. If you're not prepared, you should start preparing.